The oil and gas giant BP have forecast that renewables are likely to account for roughly one-third of the world’s energy production by 2040, with the uptake of renewable energy growing faster than that of any other fuel type.
The company’s energy outlook report, which was published on the 14th February, forecasts that by 2040 renewables will account for 30% of global electricity supply, with current standings at just 10% in 2018. This is an increase from BP’s 2018 predictions as this set the 2040 proportion for renewables at 25%.
To get an understanding of growths from other fuel types; it took 45 years for oil to go from 1% to 10% of global energy, whilst gas took more than 50 years. The renewable growth is expected to reach an equivalent milestone in just 25 years which is faster than any fuel in history, according to BP.
Based on The Outlook’s predictions, the trajectory of GDP doubling globally over the next 20 years means that more energy is demanded to meet these predicted increases, estimated at a total increase of one-third.
The report’s ‘Evolving Transition’ (ET) scenario analyses trends and policies implemented in order to predict growth; it estimates that renewables will account for half of this increased demand for energy, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) expected to cover the rest of this energy need.
This ‘renewables revolution’ shall be predominantly led by the bigger economies of Europe, with the continent predicted to be using renewables for 50% of total energy used by the year 2040, hopefully with the rest of the globe to follow the example set.
If the estimations made by BP are to become reality, government policies will be forced to pressure coal production to be ceased in some areas, as a result of coal demand flat lining for the best part of a decade.
As well as this, it is forecasted that although for a decade oil consumption will continue to grow, this is expected to flatten by 2030 with the rapid advancing growth of clean technologies.